It’s no surprise to anyone that the world’s economy has been hit with some hard economic problems, and we’re not doing any better in the United States. With an enormous federal deficit, record high unemployment rates, and general public unrest, it’s hard to see any end to our troubles.
One of the main contributors is a poor housing market, which affects the weak economy. The weak economy then further affects the housing market. It is a vicious cycle. In a recent article, Peter Orszag, Vice Chairman of Global Banking at Citigroup and columnist for Bloomberg View, draws a global example and considers that, even if the European banking system remains stable, the U.S. economy may still flounder because of the housing market’s current state. Orszag goes on to admit that breaking the vicious cycle will be a painful, time-consuming process.
An Excess of Homes
In a normal housing market, it’s expected to have some vacant homes for sale. It’s part of the process of matching buyers with sellers. During the 90s, the average vacancy rate was about 1.5 percent. By 2008, the amount nearly doubled to 2.9 percent.
This year, the number has only come down slightly to 2.5 percent. Although that single percentage point difference from the historical average seems miniscule, it amounts to an excess of almost 1 million vacant homes. This excess of owner-occupied housing puts downward pressure on prices.
Renting Homes Out
Peter Orszag’s suggestion to ease the current housing depression: allowing tax write-offs for investors who buy empty properties and rent them out. Shifting vacant homes into the rental market would help stabilize prices.
Based on calculations by Richard Wagreigh of Citigroup’s Financial Strategy Group, the annual costs on real estate investment would be reduced by about a third when applying the tax break. The policy would also allow for more rental units, lowering the overall price, and encouraging others to move out of existing homes into their own rental units. To avoid letting the tax break outlive its purpose, the policy would be tied to the supply of vacant homes for sale.
As an example, let’s assume the tax break policy produces an extra 250,000 housing units that can be purchased and rented out each year, as well as 500,000 other units bought and rented even in the absence of the tax break. If the average price of those homes is $250,000, the 10 year total cost to the government would be less than $50 billion each year; most of this amount would return to the government in the future, based on full deductions. The cost would then be about $10 billion for each year the tax break is in place.